On June 25th, SEMI released the survey results of its latest 300mm wafer fab outlook report, showing that the global semiconductor manufacturing industry is expected to maintain strong momentum, with production capacity expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from the end of 2024 to 2028, reaching a historic high of 11.1 million wafers per month (wpm).
The key driving force behind this growth is the continued expansion of advanced process capacity (7nm and below), which is expected to grow by about 69%, from 850000 wpm in 2024 to a historical high of 1.4 million wpm in 2028- a compound annual growth rate of about 14%, twice the industry average. SEMI expects advanced process production capacity to reach a significant milestone in 2026, breaking through one million wafers per month for the first time and reaching 1.16 million wpm.
SEMI stated that the deployment of production capacity of 2nm and below shows more aggressive expansion throughout the forecast period, with capacity expected to significantly increase from less than 200000 wpm in 2025 to over 500000 wpm in 2028, reflecting strong market demand driven by artificial intelligence applications in advanced manufacturing.
Ajit Manocha, President and CEO of SEMI, said, "Artificial intelligence continues to be a transformative force in the global semiconductor industry, driving significant expansion of advanced manufacturing capabilities. The rapid adoption of AI applications is stimulating strong investment throughout the semiconductor ecosystem, highlighting the industry's critical role in promoting technological innovation and meeting the growing demand for advanced chips
The demand for advanced technology wafer fab equipment is expected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2027
SEMI points out that the investment pattern in the semiconductor industry is still firmly locked in advanced process technology. It is expected that by 2028, capital expenditures on advanced process equipment will soar to over $50 billion, a significant increase of 94% from $26 billion in 2024. This growth trajectory highlights the industry's firm commitment to next-generation manufacturing capabilities, reflecting a strong compound annual growth rate of 18%.
The transition to cutting-edge nodes continues to accelerate, with 2nm technology expected to achieve mass production in 2026 and 1.4nm technology expected to achieve commercial deployment in 2028. In response to the growing market demand, chip manufacturers are strategically expanding their production capacity ahead of schedule, with expected growth rates of 33% and 21% in 2025 and 2027, respectively.
The investment in 2nm and below wafer equipment shows a particularly significant expansion, with funding more than doubling from $19 billion in 2024 to $43 billion in 2028. This astonishing 120% growth highlights the industry's active pursuit of next-generation manufacturing capabilities.
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